What to Know About This Year’s Flu Season and the Effectiveness of the Flu Shot

a small glass medical vial and a sterile syringe resting on a stainless steel medical tray inside a typical community pharmacy clinic, with an out-of-focus back

AI-generated illustration; not a photograph of the reported event.

  • calendar_today October 9, 2026

Early Start to Flu Season in Canada

The 2026 flu season has arrived earlier than usual in Canada, with health authorities noting increased influenza cases in large cities such as Toronto and Calgary. Some regions are already seeing the impact; for example, Alberta has reported over 400 confirmed flu cases and one death related to the virus in the Calgary area. While concerns rise, experts note that the dominant influenza strain circulating so far is H1N1, which tends to cause milder illness than some other strains but can still result in significant outbreaks.

Current Influenza Case Numbers and Regional Outbreaks

National surveillance data up to September 26 indicate 2,102 detections of influenza since the end of August. The percentage of positive influenza tests between September 20 and 26 was 3.7%, a proportion much higher than what is typical at this point in the season. However, much of the increase is attributed to upticks in B.C., Yukon, and urban centers such as Toronto and Calgary. Family doctors in Toronto, such as Dr. Joseph Param, report a notable rise in flu patients, especially among young adults who often commute and may continue daily activities while symptomatic.

Despite early case spikes in certain regions, "the rest of the country is really very quiet," according to Dr. Brian Ward, professor emeritus at the Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre in Montreal. In B.C., outbreaks in long-term care homes are largely driving the case numbers, and gathering during holiday weekends could contribute to further spread.

Flu Shot Effectiveness for 2026

The flu shot this year is considered a "good" match for the most prevalent strain, H1N1. Dr. Ward explained that while H1N1 can cause large outbreaks, it generally leads to a lower proportion of severe illnesses compared to years dominated by the H3N2 subtype. The effectiveness of flu vaccines varies annually, depending on how well the vaccine components match circulating strains. For 2026, the vaccine is well-matched to H1N1, which has made up about 98% of lab-confirmed influenza cases in Canada since August according to government data. Nonetheless, influenza viruses can evolve during the season, so ongoing monitoring is essential.

Guidance on Vaccination Timing and Public Health Advice

Doctors and public health authorities recommend getting vaccinated as soon as shots become available in your area to help prevent the spread of respiratory illnesses. In Ontario, flu and COVID-19 immunizations have been available to high-risk groups since early October, with availability expanding to the general public on October 26. Other provinces have begun rolling out immunization campaigns at different times, with most regions aiming to reach all residents by mid- to late October.

The National Advisory Committee on Immunizations (NACI) continues to strongly recommend the latest COVID-19 booster shots for those at higher risk, including adults over 65, healthcare workers, those with immunocompromised conditions, and residents in long-term care. While COVID-19 test positivity is currently lower than last year, vigilance is advised.

How to Get the Flu Shot in Your Region

Residents are advised to check regional eligibility before heading to the pharmacy for their flu shots, as rollouts and criteria vary by province. In Ontario, general public access to both flu and COVID-19 vaccines begins October 26. In Quebec, vaccinations for respiratory viruses can be booked starting October 13, with the public campaign launching October 20; free access is limited to high-risk groups. Other provinces and territories have similar staggered schedules, with immunization clinics gradually opening their doors through October.

Looking ahead, new vaccine technologies may broaden options—such as the mRNA influenza vaccine approved in the United States this year and still under review in Canada.

Summary and Public Health Recommendations

As flu season gets underway, authorities urge Canadians to stay home when ill and to seek vaccination against both influenza and COVID-19 as soon as possible. The 2026 flu shot is well-matched to the circulating H1N1 strain, with ongoing immunization campaigns aiming to curb regional outbreaks. Regular updates from local public health agencies and adherence to recommended guidance will be essential in minimizing the impact of this early flu season.

Source: cbc.ca.